The Wire

Treasurer Wayne Swan is focussing on the positives in his first budget under Prime Minister Julia Gillard – low unemployment, low inflation and a looming mining boom mark two, as coal exports to China pick up. He’s predicting a deficit of $22.6 billion in 2011/12 followed by a surplus of $3.5 billion in 2012/13, on the back of favourable terms of trade. But do economists think the treasurer got his predictions right?